The Risks and Uncertainties Arising from the War

• 04.04.2022
• Archive

For the past 15 years, the world has been nearly unable to breathe, both economically and geopolitically. Almost every corner of the globe has been jolted by an economic crisis, a conflict, terrorism, or violence since the global financial crisis in 2008. The global economy, once again destabilized, is plagued by shockwaves resulting from these different dynamics. 

The shockwaves arising from all of this bring new uncertainties and risks almost every year. Even when we look the events of the last five years only, such as the US-China trade war, Brexit, climate disasters, and finally the Covid-19 pandemic, we can understand the difficult times we have been experiencing. To make things worse, the world is now on edge because of the war between Russia and Ukraine that started on February 24. This war threatens the future of all humanity, primarily with the heavy humanitarian, social and environmental destruction. Meanwhile, the economic effects of war are spreading all over the world. High inflation for instance, which has plagued the world economy today as the most effective economic side effect of Covid-19, has become the dominant agenda in the world due to this war.

Today, as a result of the war, the global economy is facing slower growth and faster inflation spiral. The conflict between these two countries, which play critical roles in supply chains in many sectors from agriculture to food, to iron and steel to energy and a variety of other basic resources, has caused disruptions in the chain at its most critical point. So the war, which is not yet clear how long will take, has already affected many economic and vital activities, particularly industrial production.

During these challenging days, we organized our March Assembly with the agenda of "Global Economic Developments and the Challenges Faced by our Economy, Export, and Industry due to the war in Ukraine and Search for Solutions." We discussed this very important matter with Mr. Mehmet Muş, our Minister of Trade. As a guest of the high-level bureaucrats and high-ranking members of the Ministry of Customs and Trade, Muş listened patiently to numerous questions and demands from our members of the Assembly. As you can read in the following pages of our magazine, our Minister demonstrated a solution-oriented approach to all the demands and problems conveyed.

In the early days of April, we also started to a new month of Ramadan, which we longed for. I would like to take this opportunity to wish you a healthy, peaceful and blessed Ramadan, during which we will all feel the virtue of solidarity and cooperation in our social life.

Erdal Bahçıvan
Istanbul Chamber of Industry
Chairman